Oil fell today after rising yesterday. December Brent dropped about 1.3% to $113.85 a barrel, and WTI lost 1.5%, trading around $101.20. Yesterday Brent climbed nearly to $116, so the market gave back some of that gain.

The trigger was renewed diplomatic steps in the Middle East intended to avert a resumption of U.S. strikes on Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Senator J.D. Vance contacted Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran continues to give diplomacy a chance. Donald Trump acknowledged Vance wrote to Iranian authorities but described the message as offering medical supplies; he also said talks proceed through intermediaries and he does not know whether they will succeed.

The signal itself matters to the market. Headlines indicating contact between senior officials on both sides can prompt profit-taking and remove some of the risk premium — and that's exactly what happened yesterday, because prices had been trading on the expectation of strikes and any softening of tone provided a reason to sell.

But calm is not yet assured. Brent is still up about 10% for the month and has reached its highest level since April, even as the conflict continues. High oil prices pressure consumers and constrain central banks' ability to fight inflation. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged yesterday, but traders expect policymakers to return to tightening in December.

With U.S. midterms on November 3 approaching, we should not expect major market changes or U.S. actions in the Middle East before then. Israeli elections also leave the picture unclear: Benjamin Netanyahu has a small lead after a tense campaign, but neither he nor Gadi Eizenkot has a clear path to form a government, and President Isaac Herzog will name whom to task only in a few days.

Physical-market signals are mixed. Saudi exports, per ship-tracking data, remain near wartime highs despite strikes on energy infrastructure and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. In the U.S., DOE data show crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels to their lowest since July, while exports are running at the highest pace since May. Recall the draw was much larger than the 300k consensus — the prior week's draw was about 3.06 million.

I think the diplomatic window gives oil only a short breather. As long as Washington hasn't abandoned the option to strike after November 3 and U.S. stocks keep falling, Brent is unlikely to drop below $110. More likely, ahead of the elections, we will see swings in roughly a $110–$118 range with an upside bias if talks stall. A substantial decline is possible only if concrete steps toward a deal appear — and I do not see such steps yet.

Technical picture: buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $102 to target $105, above which a breakout will be difficult. The farther target is around $109. On a drop, bears will try to seize control of $98; if they do, a range break would deal a heavy blow to bulls and push oil toward $95 with a prospect of extending to $92.